Graded Homework

Week 5
assignment

Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning

Access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy”
page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website
(https://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepreneurship.htm) and complete
this forecasting assignment according to the directions provided in the
“Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning” resource.

Use an Excel spreadsheet file for the calculations and
explanations. Cells should contain the formulas (if a formula was used to
calculate the entry in that cell). Students are highly encouraged to use the Excel
resource, “Forecasting Template,” to complete this assignment.

Mac users can use StatPlus:mac LE, free of charge, from
AnalystSoft.

Prepare the assignment according to the guidelines found in
the APA Style Guide, located in the Student Success Center. An abstract is not
required.

This assignment uses a rubric. Please review the rubric
prior to beginning the assignment to become familiar with the expectations for
successful completion.

You are not required to submit this assignment to Turnitin.

Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning

Important Note: Students must access the “Entrepreneurship
and the U.S. Economy” page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website in order
to complete this assignment.

Scenario

The generation of new business start-up is vital to the
growth of the economy as it builds new jobs and creates new opportunities for
the community. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks new business development
and jobs created on the website for the United States Department of Labor. You
have been tasked with forecasting economic growth and decline patterns for new
businesses in the United States.

Forecasting

Access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of
the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. Under the “Business establishment
age” heading, the first chart reviews new businesses less than 1 year old
during the March 1994 to March 2015 period. Click on the [Chart data] link
below the chart:

Once the chart data window opens, you will see the number of
establishments that are less than 1 year old for each year during this period:

Using the five most recent years and the “Forecasting
Template” spreadsheet provided, complete the forecasts for the next two
periods and provide updated Totals and Average Bias, median absolute deviation
(MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for
all four charts. Provide a Summary Page in Excel with a 500-750 word report on
the analysis completed by the forecasting models. Include review of error,
recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the
business trend data for new business startup in the United States.

Forecasting		Moving averages – 2 period moving average
Num pds	3
Data			Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand		Forecast	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	38
Period 2	40
Period 3	41		39	2	2	4	04.88%
Period 4	37		40.5	-3.5	3.5	12.25	09.46%
Period 5	45		39	6	6	36	13.33%
			Total	4.5	11.5	52.25	27.67%
			Average	1.5	3.833333	17.41667	09.22%	before forecast
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
Period 6	50		47.5	2.5	2.5	6.25	05.00%
Period 7	44		Average					after forecast period 6
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE

Forecasting		Moving averages – 3 period moving average
Num pds	3
Data			Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand		Forecast	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	38
Period 2	40
Period 3	41
Period 4	37		39.66667	-2.66667	2.666667	7.111111	07.21%
Period 5	45		39.33333	5.666667	5.666667	32.11111	12.59%
			Total	3	8.333333	39.22222	19.80%
			Average	1.5	4.166667	19.61111	09.90%
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
Period 6	50		44	6	6	36	12.00%
Period 7	44		Average					after forecast period 6
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE

Forecasting		Exponential smoothing
Alpha	0.3
Data			Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand		Forecast	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	38		38	0	0	0	0.00%
Period 2	40		38	2	2	4	5.00%
Period 3	41		38.6	2.4	2.4	5.76	5.85%
Period 4	37		39.32	-2.32	2.32	5.3824	6.27%
Period 5	45		38.624	6.376	6.376	40.65338	14.17%
			Total	8.456	13.096	55.79578	31.29%
			Average	1.6912	2.6192	11.15916	06.26%	Before forecast
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
					SE	4.312608
Period 6	50		40.5368	9.4632	9.4632	89.55215	18.93%
Period 7	44		Average					after forecast period 6
				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE

Forecasting		Trend adjusted exponential smoothing
Alpha	0.3
Beta	0.7
Data			Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand		Smoothed Forecast, Ft	Smoothed Trend, Tt	Forecast Including Trend, FITt	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	38		38		38	0	0	0	00.00%
Period 2	40		38	0	38	2	2	4	05.00%
Period 3	41		38.6	0.42	39.02	1.98	1.98	3.9204	04.83%
Period 4	37		39.614	0.8358	40.4498	-3.4498	3.4498	11.90112	09.32%
Period 5	45		39.41486	0.111342	39.5262	5.473798	5.4738	29.96246	0.12164
	Next period		41.16834	1.26084	42.42918
			Total			6.003998	12.9036	49.78398	31.32%
	41.16834		Average			1.2008	2.58072	9.956797	06.26%
						Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
							SE	4.073655
	Next period		42.05093	0.617811	42.66874
			Total							After forecast
			Average
						Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
							SE	0