Module 2 – Case
DECISION TREES AND THE DELPHI PROCEDURE
STOP! Have you read,
studied, and understood all of the course materials, including the Module Home
Page and the sources listed under Background Info? If you haven’t, then do so before attempting
this Case.
As with all Trident courses, you’re expected to provide
references and citations. It’s
recommended you use the sources listed in the Module. Resist the temptation to browse the Web,
looking for “clues.” There’s a lot of
confusing stuff out there, and much of it is irrelevant. This Module contains all the information you
need. Study it – use it!
Case Assignment
All land within the municipality of Springfield is zoned for
either agricultural, residential or commercial use. You have just purchased a parcel of
agricultural land for $20,000 in the expectation that it will be rezoned next
year. But the rezoning is controversial,
and will be decided by the full City Council rather than just the Zoning
Commission.
According to your inside sources, there’s a 30% chance the
land will be rezoned for commercial use; in that event, you’ll be able to sell
the land for $50,000. But the populists
on the Council are pushing for more affordable housing; if they win the vote,
which your sources think has a likelihood of 50%, then the land will be rezoned
for residential use, and you’ll only be able to sell it for $30,000. Of course, the Greens may win, and the land
won’t be rezoned at all. In that event,
it will still be worth what you paid for it, but no more than that.
You’ve just been approached by Mr. Hi Roller. He’s a land speculator like yourself, but he
doesn’t have your inside sources. He
thinks the land will be rezoned next year, and has offered you $30,000 cash for
it, right now.
Which alternative should you choose? Explain your decision process in detail.
Please read and heed the hints given in Case 1. The same general advice is applicable in this
Case, in particular:
1. Read the source
materials before beginning.
2. The Case is
about decision trees, not flipping real estate.
3. Follow standard
format. A cover page, a short
discussion, references and citations are all required.
Assignment Expectations
· Provide a
table summarizing the factual data.
· Explain the
computations used to obtain the numbers in the table.
· Present a
decision tree. (This may be hand-drawn, but it must be completely legible.)
· Explain the
results of your computations, and how they support your answer.
· Follow the
instructions in the BSBA Writing Style Guide (July 2014 edition), available
online at https://mytlc.trident.edu/files/Writing-Guide_Trident_2014.pdf.
· There are no
guidelines concerning length. Write what
you need to write – neither more, nor less.
· Clearly
demonstrate your understanding of both the theory covered in the Module, and
the particulars of the Case.
· Provide
references and citations. At a minimum,
you should reference the course materials. These are referenced in APA format
on the Background Info page.
