Scenario: You are a consultant for the Diligent Consulting
Group (DCG). You have completed the first assignment, developing and testing a
forecasting method that uses Linear Regression (LR) techniques (Module 2 Case).
However, the consulting manager at DCG wants to try a different forecasting
method as well. Now you decide to try Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) to
forecast sales.
Using this Excel template: Data chart for BUS520 SLP 2, do
the following:
Calculate the MAPE for Year 2 Linear Regression forecast
(use the first spreadsheet tab labeled “Year 2 Forecast – MAPE”).
Calculate forecasted sales for Year 2 using SES (use the
second spreadsheet tab labeled “SES – MAPE”). Use 0.15 and 0.90 alphas.
Compare the MAPE calculated for the LR forecast (#1 above)
with the MAPEs calculated using SES.
Then write a report to your boss in which you discuss the
results obtained above. Using calculated MAPE values, make a recommendation
concerning which method appears to be more accurate for the Year 2 data: SES or
Linear Regression.
SLP Assignment Expectations
Analysis
Conduct accurate and complete SES analysis in Excel. You may
also check the following link for your reference:
https://support.office.com/en-US/article/data-analysis-7e71735c-c471-47e1-84ef-a8c23dc3098b
Written Report
Length requirements: 2 – 3 pages minimum (not including
Cover and Reference pages). NOTE: You must submit 2 – 3 pages of written
discussion and analysis. This means that you should avoid use of tables and
charts as “space fillers.”
Provide a brief introduction to/background of the problem.
Complete a written analysis that supports your Excel
analysis, discussing the assumptions, rationale, and logic used to complete
your SES forecast.
Give complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s)
relating to whether LR or SES is more accurate in predicting sales.
Write clearly, simply, and logically. Use double-spaced,
black Verdana or Times Roman font in 12 pt. type size.
Have an introduction at the beginning to introduce the
topics and use keywords as headings to organize the report.
Avoid redundancy and general statements such as “All
organizations exist to make a profit.” Make every sentence count.
Paraphrase the facts using your own words and ideas,
employing quotes sparingly. Quotes, if absolutely necessary, should rarely
exceed five words.
Upload both your written report and Excel file to the SLP 2
Dropbox .
