The figures below indicate the number of mergers that took place in the savings and loan industry over a 12-year period.
Year Mergers Year Mergers
2000 46 2006 83
2001 46 2007 123
2002 62 2008 97
2003 45 2009 186
2004 64 2010 225
2005 61 2011 240
- Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.
- Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error usingMSE and MAD.
- Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15,0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year weighted being the largest.
- Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012.
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