QSO 645 Expected Value Journal Guidelines and Rubric
You are the project manager for an offering manufactured by Beta Technologies. This new offering will allow customer to use credit cards for
off-track betting through the use of ATM kiosks. The project has an expense estimate of $2.5M and must be completed within the next 6 months
in order to go-to-market before any competitors. If completion takes longer than 6 months (30 percent probability), Beta Technologies stands to
lose $10M in market share. If completed within 6 months (70 percent probability), Beta Technologies has the opportunity to earn an additional
$25M in revenue. Getting the offering to market in 6 months virtually ensures Beta Technologies receives revenue of $20M for confirmed orders
already in hand.
Based on your risk assessment, there is a 30% chance of significant changes in the project requirements. If the requirements do change, an
additional development expense of $2.5M will be incurred.
Develop a Decision Tree Model to answer the following. Please show your work.
1. What is the expected value of the project if no risk events occur?
2. What is the expected value of the project?
3. What is the expected value of the project if all risk events occur in a best-case scenario?
4. What is the expected value of the project if all risk events occur in a worst-case scenario?
Journals are private between the student and the instructor. Approach these activities as (a) an opportunity to reflect upon and apply what you
learn each week based on the assigned readings, discussions, and activities, and (b) an opportunity to share your knowledge and expertise based
on your educational and professional experiences in the past. As a successful professional, you will need good reflective and writing skills.
Journal activities offer you the opportunity to further develop these skills. For more information about Blackboard blogs and journals, review
these tutorials.
Instructor Feedback: This activity uses an integrated rubric in Blackboard. Students can view instructor feedback in the Grade Center. For more
information, review these instructions.
Rubric
Critical Elements
Expected Value
Calculations
Synthesis
Writing
Exemplary (100%)
Entry clearly describes the
expected value of the project
with specific relevant examples
Proficient (90%)
Entry describes expected value
of the project with examples
Needs Improvement (70%)
Entry describes most of the
elements of expected value
Not Evident (0%)
Entry does not show evidence
of understanding expected
value of the project
Effectively works with
numerical data and solves
quantitative problems with
accurate calculations
Works with numerical data and
solves most quantitative
problems accurately
Works with numerical data and
solves quantitative problems
with minimal effectiveness
Is not able to work with
numerical data and solve
quantitative problems
25
Entry shows excellent evidence
of synthesis of the module
content and exhibits careful
consideration of the topic
Entry shows good application
of the module content and
demonstrates that the student
has read the module content
Entry shows limited
application, indicating the
student may have reviewed the
module content but needs to
explore further
Entry does not address the
journal prompts and reflects
that the student has not read
the module content
25
Entry is free of errors in
organization and grammar
Errors of organization and
grammar are marginal and
rarely interrupt the flow
Errors of organization and
grammar are limited enough so
that entries can be understood
Errors of organization and
grammar make the entry
difficult to understand
25
Total
Value
25
100%
