PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
(MGT613)
Problem:
The Pizza Point is a small restaurant catering to the customers who have a taste for oriental pizza. The manager forecasts the demand on weekly basis for this type of pizzas so that he can order ingredients weekly. Recently demand has been as follows:
|
Week |
Demand of Pizzas |
|
April 2 |
50 |
|
April 9 |
65 |
|
April 16 |
52 |
|
April 23 |
56 |
|
April 30 |
55 |
|
May 7 |
60 |
|
May 14 |
56 |
|
May 21 |
Forecast the demand for pizza for April 23 – May 21 by using simple moving average method with n = 3.
Using the same data forecast for April 23 – May 21 with weighted moving average method where n and weights are 0.50, 0.30, 0.20. Apply 0.50 to the most recent demand.
Use the exponential smoothing method to forecast the demand of pizzas for April 9 – May 7; where smoothing constant (alpha) α = 0.1. Assume
Record the results of your calculation in given tabular format as below:
|
Week |
Demand of Pizzas |
Forecast |
Forecast |
Forecast |
|
(simple |
(weighted |
α .1 |
||
|
moving Avg) |
moving Avg) |
|||
|
April 2 |
50 |
|||
|
April 9 |
65 |
|||
|
April 16 |
52 |
|||
|
April 23 |
56 |
|||
|
April 30 |
55 |
|||
|
May 7 |
60 |
|||
|
May 14 |
56 |
|||
|
May 21 |
