Production & Operations Management – MGT613
Table below shows its annual sales, demand and production demand over the period 1998 to 2005 (For both canvas and parachute material tents).
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TABLE , ANNUAL VALUES OF SALES, DEMAND AND PRODUCTION FOR PAKORG |
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YEAR |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
|
SALES |
214,200 |
202,100 |
192,500 |
189,000 |
198,300 |
213,400 |
241,400 |
231,100 |
|
DEMAND |
150,000 |
155,000 |
125,000 |
200,000 |
225,000 |
245,000 |
175,000 |
185,000 |
|
PRODUCTION |
155,000 |
155,000 |
185,000 |
185,000 |
185,000 |
185,000 |
185,000 |
185,000 |
- Identify the sales trend over the period shown
- Do the demand figures show cyclical fluctuations?
- What happens on the sales trend if there is a prolong summer or a tragic incident like an earthquake or a flood.
- Compute a three year and five year moving average demand forecast for both types of tents for the last five years (2001 to 2005).
- The management provides a smoothing constant value of 0.1 and 0.6 and asks to record the differences between actual and forecaster demand values. The spread is narrow and wider for which smoothing constant?
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