Module 2 discussion
Estimating Probabilities: Availability Bias
One of the biases that has been proposed by Kahneman and
Tversky and researched a great deal is the Availability bias. What is the
Availability bias? How might it play a role in the decision in SLP 2? Consider
that the estimated probabilities for both of the High NPV future states are
relatively high (0.50 and 0.75). How could the Availability bias be at work
here? How could using objective data analysis like frequency distributions
mitigate the effect of the Availability bias?
Week 1: Provide your initial discussion post to the
question. Be sure to include references to any resources you used. You should
use at least one resource to help you with your initial discussion.
Week 2: Respond to at least two of your classmates’ initial
posts. Your response should be substantive and further the discussion. It is OK
to be critical and use critical thinking. That means you can question what your
classmates say. Do they provide their own critical thinking and logic?
