I) Answer in 350 words min APA format, two peer reviewed references.
1A-What are the major elements in applying Time Series Regression Model to forecasting? Could you provide us with a real world example that you may use this method in forecasting? Also, please choose one of the models that would be most appropriate for your case and explain your rational.
II) Reply to each post in a min of 250 word for each one of the forum posts
1-In my line of work, Public Works, impacts of pollution are always at the forefront of processes and procedures whether we are considering a new transportation project, reviewing new developments, or reporting on our annual NPDES MS4 (National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System – Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System) permit. Working in a coastal community in Florida, there is great concern with the impact to coastal and wetland ecosystems. Impacts to these fragile ecosystems can be direct or indirect (Labi & Sinha, 2007). Direct mechanisms includes any physical destruction of the natural environment usually through land conversion (Labi & Sinha, 2007). Indirect mechanisms are not planned but unintended external impacts as a result of transportation activities (Labi & Sinha, 2007). Wetlands and coastal ecosystems can be impacted by dredging, development, transportation projects (bridges and highway expansions), increases in traffic, stormwater run-off, and natural disasters or accidents.
Quantifying the impact of pollution can be realized by considering water quality and treatment, flood impacts and mitigation, loss of recreation benefits, loss of business opportunities, cost of pollution controls and pollution clean-up (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2006). For example, during Hurricane Hermine in 2016, the Tampa Bay area received over 20 inches of rain. This rain inundated the wastewater systems with stormwater and groundwater infiltration. The system could not maintain the flow of water and began to discharge the mixture of stormwater, groundwater, and wastewater into the canals, streams, streets, and ultimately the bay. Millions of gallons of wastewater was discharged during the storm event (Frago, 2016). The cost to the communities and government agencies was far more than the cost to repair the infrastructure, e.g., negative public perception, closed beaches, firing of top Public Works officials, consent orders from FDEP (Florida Department of Environmental Protection), and new reporting measures issued by the Governor. The municipalities are still dealing with pollution issues today, more than five months post-storm.
Roadways tend to be the largest contributor to the pollution of wetlands and coastal ecosystems. This includes construction, use, and maintenance of roadways and bridges. Oils and debris from roadways wash into wetlands, typically through stormwater systems or sheet flow runoff, reducing water quality and affecting plant growth, animal habitat, and animal food source (Labi & Sinha, 2007). Maintenance, including use of herbicides, reduces vegetative cover or food sources for wetland animals (Labi & Sinha, 2007). Collisions between animals or natural habitat destroy both wildlife, shelter, and vegetation (Labi & Sinha, 2007). Land clearing, dredging, or filling for construction or development activities affects animal habitats, flood control, and water quality (Labi & Sinha, 2007). These pollution impacts should be mitigated to the fullest during planning and design, then followed up during the operational phase by utilizing best management practices set forth by the Environmental Protection Agency.
References
Frago, C. (2016, September 6). Tampa Bay’s sewage mess: 29 million gallons spilled into the bay and rising. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/water/tampa-bays-sewage-mess-29-million-gallons-spilled-into-the-bay-and-rising/2292477
Labi, S., & Sinha, K. (2007). Transportation decision making: principles of project evaluation and programming. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
United States Environmental Protection Agency. (2006, May). Economic Benefits of Wetlands. Retrieved from EPA: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-02/documents/economicbenefits.pdf
2-There are different types of pollution impact such as air, water or land. One of the type is air pollution which is the contamination of air present in the atmosphere. If the air around us consists of harmful gases, it would have a fatal effect on us. There many reasons of air pollution:
1)-Exhaust fumes from vehicles 2)- Certain industries release some poisonous gases like Sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide which cause adverse effect on health and reason of acid rain 3)- The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil or gas. 4)-Harmful gases from production of plastic, paint or so on (Bradford, 2015).
The most common issue for using air carriers is related to environment that requires going green and decreasing the emission in the air which is related to airport activity. Aircraft engines contribute approximately in the air emission about 45% and ground operations such as vehicles activity including passengers drop off share 45% and the remaining 10% related to ground equipment (Sinah and Labi, 2007, p 271).
The developed nations tend to contribute more to pollution than the poorer countries. For instance, The US and China are well developed countries, but at the same time they are heavy polluters as well. However, the US enforces so many environmental protections while China has very few. The US has created agencies for enforcing regulations to minimize the pollution. Being a well-developed country, the US can afford to create the agencies like Environmental Protection Agency but the poor countries fall short on their GDP to create such agencies.
References
Bradford, A. (2015, March 10). Pollution facts & types of pollution. Retrieved January 24, 2017, from http://www.livescience.com/22728-pollution-facts.html
Sinha, K. C., & Labi, S. (2007). Transportation decision making: Principles of project evaluation and programming (1st ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley
